Customs and Excise will announce import and export data China next week in October. In summary, the parties to forecast, in October Although China's export growth to slow further year, but still expected to remain at around 20%. If the basic accuracy of this forecast, with all the relevant data has been released, can assert that although the fourth quarter of China's export growth will continue to decline, but the overall stabilization. The next year, as the world's major economies may be more economic growth has slowed this year, China's export growth rate will further drop.
Determine the fourth quarter decline in export growth will remain the basis of three factors: First, in October last year, the export chain rose 7% higher than the base in September. Second, the recent real exchange rate fluctuations will erode profits of export enterprises, thus reducing export incentives and promotion of enterprise export. Third, exports of leading indicators from the new export orders index PMI of view, weakened export growth momentum. October PMI index for new export orders fell 0.2 percent last month, while the new orders index increased 1.9 percent last month, performed significantly better than export orders.
But it should be noted, in October eased since the pressure of RMB appreciation. U.S. Treasury announced Oct. 15, on the exchange rate system in China and other countries, the semi-annual currency report will be extended to the Group of Twenty (G20) summit announced G20 summit to take advantage of the opportunity to ensure that China will promote balanced growth of renminbi appreciation and the global make progress; October 22 to 23, G20 finance ministers and central bank governors promised to reduce exchange rate "disorderly fluctuations", "avoid competitive devaluation" and promote the current account balance.
More importantly, China's exports are greatly influenced by the global economy. While the general trade and processing trade is closer to the proportion of total exports, but the surplus in processing trade is a major contribution to the party. From 2009, China's general trade deficit are the basic, but maintained a high proportion of processing trade surplus. Processing trade is clearly more sensitive to external economic changes. Some organizations estimated that every change in U.S. GDP by one percentage point, will affect China's exports to the U.S. 9 percentage points. Japan's GDP by one percentage point change will affect China's exports by 2 percentage points.
Therefore, although the appreciation of the RMB and the trade friction and other factors adversely affect China's exports, but the EU and other regions taking into account the good momentum of economic recovery, especially in the major economies this year will be more crisis, economic growth has increased significantly, it is expected that the fourth quarter of The export growth rate will remain at relatively stable level.
For the same judge, as vulnerable next year, will continue the recovery of the world economy, China's export situation is not optimistic, growth is likely to fall further, even to the single digits.
First of all, as of now, Japan, Korea and Brazil and other major emerging market countries have taken unilateral measures in the foreign exchange market intervention to limit the rapid appreciation of the currency pressure agglomeration. This will extend the period of world economic recovery, the disadvantaged, but also economic and trade exchanges on the international import and export to a certain degree of obstruction (international trade).
Second, developed countries vulnerable short-term recovery is unlikely to improve. Moody's lowered again by the end of September the state-owned Anglo Irish Bank's senior debt rating, once again sparked the Irish and the euro zone banking sector worries. United States, Japan, economic performance continues to slump, the U.S. manufacturing sector PMI index fell again in August of 56.30 to the 54.40 in September(China manufacturers); Japanese manufacturing PMI index fell from 8 to 9 January 50.10 January 49.50. From: China wholesale-goodscool
